Lump-sum buy on a chosen day, hold to today
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Entry timing
Entry cohort analysis
Dataset
132w
925 daily snapshots · Jan 1, 2024 → Jul 13, 2026
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Curve DAO weekly $1,000 entries · last 4 weeks excluded from win-rate stats
133 historical entry weeks · 129 judged · 4 too recent (held < 4w)
| Strategy | Win rate | Winners | Median ROI | Mean ROI | Best week | Worst week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HODL Price-only return | 1% | 1/129 | -56% | -49% | +3% Jun 8, 26 | -81% Dec 16, 24 |
Withdraw yield Yield kept as cash | 5% | 6/129 | -45% | -39% | +27% Aug 5, 24 | -76% Dec 16, 24 |
Reinvest yield Yield compounded | 2% | 3/129 | -48% | -44% | +14% Aug 5, 24 | -79% Dec 16, 24 |
Win rate by weeks held
| Holding period | Entries | Winners | Win rate | Median ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4w | 4 | 1 | 25% | -1% |
| 4–13w | 9 | 1 | 11% | -9% |
| 13–26w | 13 | 0 | 0% | -14% |
| 26–52w | 26 | 0 | 0% | -60% |
| 52w+ | 81 | 5 | 6% | -47% |
Top 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 24 | $0.2082 | 101 | $1.27K | +27.4% |
| Nov 4, 24 | $0.2288 | 88 | $1.14K | +14.1% |
| Oct 28, 24 | $0.2405 | 89 | $1.09K | +8.7% |
| Jun 8, 26 | $0.1993 | 5 | $1.04K | +3.7% |
| Jul 29, 24 | $0.2619 | 102 | $1.02K | +1.6% |
Bottom 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 24 | $1.097 | 82 | $235 | -76.5% |
| Dec 9, 24 | $1.096 | 83 | $236 | -76.4% |
| Jul 28, 25 | $1.009 | 50 | $242 | -75.8% |
| Aug 11, 25 | $0.9731 | 48 | $247 | -75.3% |
| Jul 21, 25 | $0.9724 | 51 | $252 | -74.8% |