Lump-sum buy on a chosen day, hold to today
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Entry timing
Entry cohort analysis
Dataset
134w
941 daily snapshots · Jan 1, 2024 → Jul 29, 2026
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Curve DAO weekly $1,000 entries · last 4 weeks excluded from win-rate stats
135 historical entry weeks · 131 judged · 4 too recent (held < 4w)
| Strategy | Win rate | Winners | Median ROI | Mean ROI | Best week | Worst week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HODL Price-only return | 3% | 4/131 | -53% | -47% | +10% Jun 29, 26 | -81% Dec 16, 24 |
Withdraw yield Yield kept as cash | 5% | 6/131 | -47% | -42% | +17% Aug 5, 24 | -78% Dec 16, 24 |
Reinvest yield Yield compounded | 4% | 5/131 | -50% | -44% | +10% Jun 29, 26 | -80% Dec 16, 24 |
Win rate by weeks held
| Holding period | Entries | Winners | Win rate | Median ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4w | 4 | 2 | 50% | +0% |
| 4–13w | 9 | 3 | 33% | -7% |
| 13–26w | 13 | 1 | 8% | -7% |
| 26–52w | 26 | 0 | 0% | -59% |
| 52w+ | 83 | 2 | 2% | -52% |
Top 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 24 | $0.2082 | 103 | $1.17K | +17.3% |
| Jun 29, 26 | $0.1909 | 4 | $1.10K | +10.1% |
| Jun 8, 26 | $0.1993 | 7 | $1.06K | +5.7% |
| Nov 4, 24 | $0.2288 | 90 | $1.05K | +4.9% |
| Jun 22, 26 | $0.2094 | 5 | $1.00K | +0.5% |
Bottom 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 24 | $1.097 | 84 | $216 | -78.4% |
| Dec 9, 24 | $1.096 | 85 | $217 | -78.3% |
| Jul 28, 25 | $1.009 | 52 | $224 | -77.5% |
| Aug 11, 25 | $0.9731 | 50 | $231 | -76.9% |
| Jan 6, 25 | $1.012 | 81 | $232 | -76.8% |