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Lump-sum buy on a chosen day, hold to today
Active tool
Entry timing
Entry cohort analysis
Dataset
26w
183 daily snapshots · Jan 28, 2026 → Jul 29, 2026
Access
6M preview
Public mode caps tool history to the latest six months.
Moonwell weekly $1,000 entries · last 4 weeks excluded from win-rate stats
27 historical entry weeks · 23 judged · 4 too recent (held < 4w)
| Strategy | Win rate | Winners | Median ROI | Mean ROI | Best week | Worst week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HODL Price-only return | 0% | 0/23 | -30% | -29% | -11% Jun 29, 26 | -49% Jan 26, 26 |
Withdraw yield Yield kept as cash | 0% | 0/23 | -27% | -28% | -11% Jun 29, 26 | -47% Jan 26, 26 |
Reinvest yield Yield compounded | 0% | 0/23 | -28% | -28% | -11% Jun 29, 26 | -48% Jan 26, 26 |
Win rate by weeks held
| Holding period | Entries | Winners | Win rate | Median ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4w | 4 | 0 | 0% | -14% |
| 4–13w | 9 | 0 | 0% | -22% |
| 13–26w | 13 | 0 | 0% | -28% |
| 26–52w | 1 | 0 | 0% | -47% |
| 52w+ | 0 | 0 | — | — |
Top 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | $0.003442 | 4 | $890 | -11.0% |
| Jun 8, 26 | $0.003687 | 7 | $833 | -16.7% |
| Jun 22, 26 | $0.003738 | 5 | $820 | -18.0% |
| Jun 15, 26 | $0.003766 | 6 | $815 | -18.6% |
| May 18, 26 | $0.003948 | 10 | $779 | -22.1% |
Bottom 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 26 | $0.006051 | 26 | $528 | -47.2% |
| Mar 16, 26 | $0.005302 | 19 | $592 | -40.8% |
| May 11, 26 | $0.004786 | 11 | $644 | -35.6% |
| May 25, 26 | $0.004585 | 9 | $670 | -33.0% |
| Feb 2, 26 | $0.004752 | 25 | $671 | -32.9% |