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Lump-sum buy on a chosen day, hold to today
Active tool
Entry timing
Entry cohort analysis
Dataset
26w
183 daily snapshots · Jan 12, 2026 → Jul 13, 2026
Access
6M preview
Public mode caps tool history to the latest six months.
Moonwell weekly $1,000 entries · last 4 weeks excluded from win-rate stats
27 historical entry weeks · 23 judged · 4 too recent (held < 4w)
| Strategy | Win rate | Winners | Median ROI | Mean ROI | Best week | Worst week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HODL Price-only return | 4% | 1/23 | -16% | -18% | +1% Jun 8, 26 | -53% Jan 12, 26 |
Withdraw yield Yield kept as cash | 4% | 1/23 | -13% | -17% | +1% Jun 8, 26 | -50% Jan 12, 26 |
Reinvest yield Yield compounded | 4% | 1/23 | -14% | -17% | +1% Jun 8, 26 | -51% Jan 12, 26 |
Win rate by weeks held
| Holding period | Entries | Winners | Win rate | Median ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4w | 4 | 3 | 75% | +0% |
| 4–13w | 9 | 1 | 11% | -11% |
| 13–26w | 13 | 0 | 0% | -15% |
| 26–52w | 1 | 0 | 0% | -50% |
| 52w+ | 0 | 0 | — | — |
Top 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 26 | $0.003687 | 5 | $1.01K | +1.2% |
| Jun 15, 26 | $0.003766 | 4 | $990 | -1.0% |
| May 18, 26 | $0.003948 | 8 | $947 | -5.3% |
| Jun 1, 26 | $0.004045 | 6 | $923 | -7.7% |
| Apr 13, 26 | $0.004199 | 13 | $897 | -10.3% |
Bottom 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 26 | $0.007842 | 26 | $496 | -50.5% |
| Jan 19, 26 | $0.006862 | 25 | $564 | -43.6% |
| Jan 26, 26 | $0.006026 | 24 | $640 | -36.0% |
| Mar 16, 26 | $0.005302 | 17 | $716 | -28.4% |
| May 11, 26 | $0.004786 | 9 | $782 | -21.8% |