Lump-sum buy on a chosen day, hold to today
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Entry timing
Entry cohort analysis
Dataset
32w
221 daily snapshots · Oct 15, 2025 → May 23, 2026
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Full history
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Yield Basis weekly $1,000 entries · last 4 weeks excluded from win-rate stats
32 historical entry weeks · 28 judged · 4 too recent (held < 4w)
| Strategy | Win rate | Winners | Median ROI | Mean ROI | Best week | Worst week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HODL Price-only return | 18% | 5/28 | -60% | -43% | +24% Mar 30, 26 | -83% Oct 13, 25 |
Withdraw yield Yield kept as cash | 18% | 5/28 | -51% | -36% | +24% Mar 30, 26 | -76% Oct 13, 25 |
Reinvest yield Yield compounded | 18% | 5/28 | -54% | -38% | +24% Mar 30, 26 | -79% Oct 13, 25 |
Win rate by weeks held
| Holding period | Entries | Winners | Win rate | Median ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4w | 4 | 3 | 75% | +7% |
| 4–13w | 9 | 5 | 56% | +6% |
| 13–26w | 13 | 0 | 0% | -58% |
| 26–52w | 6 | 0 | 0% | -65% |
| 52w+ | 0 | 0 | — | — |
Top 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 26 | $0.1032 | 7 | $1.24K | +24.1% |
| Mar 23, 26 | $0.1150 | 8 | $1.12K | +11.8% |
| Apr 20, 26 | $0.1167 | 4 | $1.10K | +9.7% |
| Apr 13, 26 | $0.1189 | 5 | $1.08K | +7.7% |
| Apr 6, 26 | $0.1203 | 6 | $1.06K | +6.4% |
Bottom 5 qualified weeks
| Entry | Price | Weeks | Final | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 25 | $0.7713 | 31 | $244 | -75.7% |
| Nov 3, 25 | $0.5833 | 28 | $322 | -67.8% |
| Dec 8, 25 | $0.5389 | 23 | $328 | -67.2% |
| Jan 5, 26 | $0.4534 | 19 | $336 | -66.4% |
| Oct 27, 25 | $0.5493 | 29 | $342 | -65.8% |